Short-term play
Coil-breakout
Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.
After a strong rally the name pauses in a narrow range on shrinking volume, holding close to the highs. Stored energy for the next leg up.
Recommended position
- Structure
- Long 100 % strike call · short 110 % strike call · 60 days to expiry
- Take profit
- Close at +100 % of capital at risk
- Stop loss
- Close at −50 % of capital at risk
- Expected per trade
- Validated on the coil-breakout cohort: convex right-tail; ~2× more likely to produce a +20 % move than a matched control day. See
research/coil_breakout_options.py. - Thesis
- Tight quiet base near the highs after a sharp run. The market is wound up; a debit call spread captures the directional breakout while bounding cost.
HZO$52.44$52.18Cons. Discr.52.2%0.7%+0.300.2%
Cost$210
Max win$315
Stop loss−$105
PLTR$189.67$188.72Technology51.5%11.6%+0.301.5%
Cost$759
Max win$1,138
Stop loss−$379
Recent triggers
The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.
| Date | Symbol | Entry | +5 days | +10 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | YOU | $53.46 | -8.2 % | -1.6 % | +9.2 % |
| 2026-03-17 | VAL | $97.28 | +0.7 % | +0.8 % | -5.8 % |
| 2026-02-25 | FORM | $105.83 | -12.5 % | -13.2 % | +2.1 % |
| 2026-02-25 | VIAV | $30.85 | +5.6 % | -2.5 % | +20.8 % |
| 2026-02-24 | VIAV | $29.13 | +13.4 % | +2.0 % | +23.4 % |
| 2026-01-12 | SATS | $126.07 | -3.2 % | -0.2 % | -8.2 % |
| 2026-01-06 | ALB | $158.15 | +11.8 % | +13.9 % | +6.6 % |
| 2026-01-06 | QDEL | $32.50 | +2.5 % | -9.5 % | -9.8 % |
| 2025-11-24 | RCUS | $23.18 | +9.7 % | +8.2 % | -2.0 % |
| 2025-10-29 | WDC | $141.38 | +13.2 % | +17.5 % | +11.6 % |
| 2025-10-28 | INTC | $41.53 | -10.8 % | -8.8 % | -13.7 % |
| 2025-10-23 | LUMN | $7.79 | +32.7 % | +40.4 % | -4.0 % |
| 2025-10-01 | RUN | $18.35 | +5.7 % | +16.0 % | +9.6 % |
| 2025-09-09 | ALNY | $482.13 | -4.3 % | -5.7 % | -4.7 % |
| 2025-09-05 | RUN | $18.18 | -11.7 % | -8.8 % | +5.1 % |
| 2025-08-26 | VSAT | $30.80 | -4.2 % | -5.4 % | -7.5 % |
| 2025-08-04 | VSAT | $20.28 | +26.0 % | +35.1 % | +53.0 % |
| 2025-07-31 | VSAT | $16.43 | +59.6 % | +66.5 % | +98.0 % |
| 2025-07-23 | FWRD | $30.45 | +1.1 % | -1.8 % | -8.7 % |
| 2025-06-30 | LIF | $65.25 | -1.2 % | +4.9 % | +16.3 % |
Scanner refreshed 2026-09-27. 2 matches.