For the independently minded investor
The case for a company. The case against it. And the research that tells them apart.
Independent investment research with an open record—from the signals we follow to the ideas we walk away from.
Open to read. Built to be questioned.
What the evidence showed
Tighter compression predicts less forward volatility, not more.
01 / The investment case
From a promising screen to a considered verdict. Including the companies that didn’t make the cut.
The only name in a 129-company Swedish universe that passes every quality and price test, trading 25% below its own four-year average.
Contract catering compounding revenue at 28% a year while doubling its margin, at 11× EBIT — but the margin is the whole thesis and it needs verifying.
Trading 43% below its 200-week average and simultaneously more expensive than it was at peak earnings — the decline is a bubble unwinding, not a discount.
02 / The model in practice
A method is only part of the story. Follow the simulated holdings, inspect every trade, and see the years that challenged the strategy.
Inspect the model portfolio Hypothetical performance. No real capital invested.03 / Beyond the score
Five of the six names that entered the book on August 12 are technology companies riding some version of the AI buildout. The sixth sells car and home...
Read the analysisCisco spent the better part of two decades as the stock that proved buying great companies at the wrong price doesn't work. It grew single digits,...
Read the analysisNothing about Fortinet is flashy. The company sells network security: firewalls at every size from branch office to data center, increasingly bundled...
Read the analysisThe advantage of changing your mind
60 published tests. The hypothesis, the sample, and what the evidence actually supported.
The wider picture