The method, put to the test
Model portfolio.
The Bid & Ask Demo Portfolio. The holdings, the returns, and the drawdowns. A simulated portfolio with its history open to inspection.
Simulation Hypothetical positions and returns. No real capital is invested. How it works →
Portfolio valueAs of 2026-09-25
$1.70M(+1603.4%)
| Symbol | Shares | Entry | Entry $ | Last | Mkt Value | Unr P&L | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | 385 | 2026-07-01 | $424.55 | $562.89 | $216.79K | +32.6% | 12.7% |
| HPE | 3.22K | 2026-08-12 | $58.79 | $62.94 | $202.52K | +7.1% | 11.9% |
| VLO | 452 | 2026-08-12 | $330.21 | $387.18 | $175.07K | +17.3% | 10.3% |
| PANW | 452 | 2026-09-01 | $362.09 | $374.74 | $169.40K | +3.5% | 9.9% |
| PSX | 649 | 2026-09-01 | $252.02 | $255.75 | $166.10K | +1.5% | 9.8% |
| TRV | 450 | 2026-08-12 | $370.16 | $363.04 | $163.29K | -1.9% | 9.6% |
| CIEN | 454 | 2026-09-01 | $360.33 | $356.91 | $162.13K | -0.9% | 9.5% |
| JPM | 461 | 2026-09-01 | $354.95 | $343.06 | $158.20K | -3.3% | 9.3% |
| AVGO | 443 | 2026-09-01 | $369.68 | $352.81 | $156.21K | -4.6% | 9.2% |
| ADBE | 572 | 2026-09-01 | $286.08 | $235.47 | $134.72K | -17.7% | 7.9% |
| Year | Portfolio | S&P 500 | Excess | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | +0.6% | +2.8% | -2.2% | -8.5% |
| 2015 | +10.9% | -0.7% | +11.6% | -11.9% |
| 2016 | +11.2% | +11.2% | -0.1% | -10.3% |
| 2017 | +29.8% | +18.4% | +11.3% | -6.0% |
| 2018 | +4.4% | -7.0% | +11.4% | -22.4% |
| 2019 | +29.2% | +28.7% | +0.5% | -9.0% |
| 2020 | +67.5% | +15.3% | +52.2% | -36.5% |
| 2021 | +39.2% | +28.8% | +10.4% | -12.9% |
| 2022 | -18.7% | -20.0% | +1.3% | -29.0% |
| 2023 | +29.2% | +24.7% | +4.4% | -14.3% |
| 2024 | +56.6% | +24.0% | +32.6% | -23.2% |
| 2025 | +49.3% | +16.6% | +32.7% | -32.6% |
| 2026 | +36.1% | +12.9% | +23.2% | -31.4% |
Partial years at each end. Drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough within that calendar year, not since inception.
$1.70M
▲ $1.60M (+1603.4%)
| Started | 2014-08-14 |
|---|---|
| Capital | $100.00K |
| CAGR | +26.5% |
| Strategy | Top 10 picks, equal weight |
| Universe | Large-cap US equities |
| Rebalance | Monthly |
| Calendar days | 4406 |
|---|---|
| Annualised return | +27.3% |
| Annualised vol | 27.4% |
| Sharpe | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown | -36.5% |
| Win-day rate | 56.1% |
| Total trades | 981 |
| Open positions | 10 |
Same monthly / 5 bps / 2% band / 5-rank hysteresis / top-10 EW strategy run on five non-overlapping 2-year windows with point-in-time universe membership ($50B mcap, $5M ADV).
| Window | Period | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | S&P 500 | Excess | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent (live) live-demo period | 2024-05-01 → 2026-05-01 | +50.8% | 1.39 | -34.8% | +19.2% | +31.6% | 24 |
| rate-hike era | 2022-05-01 → 2024-05-01 | +25.6% | 1.22 | -13.2% | +12.8% | +12.8% | 24 |
| COVID era | 2020-05-01 → 2022-05-01 | +20.9% | 0.80 | -31.9% | +18.7% | +2.2% | 22 |
| pre-pandemic | 2018-05-01 → 2020-05-01 | +9.0% | 0.44 | -36.0% | +3.9% | +5.1% | 21 |
| late QE | 2016-05-01 → 2018-05-01 | +17.5% | 1.21 | -9.2% | +15.2% | +2.3% | 21 |
Last rebalanced 2026-09-25. Next scheduled check: 2026-10-01. Drift below reflects signals since then — it isn’t yet acted on.
Knocking on the door
Names outscoring at least one of our holdings on a peer-adjusted basis — ranked best first.
| Rank | Name | Sector | Rating today | Peer-adj score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | MU | Technology | Strong Buy | +3.31 | would enter |
| #2 | NKE | Cons. Discr. | Strong Buy | +2.83 | would enter |
| #4 | MSFT | Technology | Buy | +0.50 | would enter |
| #5 | EA | Communications | Hold | +0.48 | would enter |
| #6 | CRM | ARKK | Buy | +0.43 | would enter |
| #7 | TGT | Cons. Staples | Hold | +0.43 | would enter |
| #8 | DAL | Industrials | Hold | +0.43 | would enter |
| #9 | NUE | Materials | Hold | +0.43 | would enter |
| #11 | WELL | Real Estate | Hold | +0.37 | near miss |
| #13 | ADP | ARKK | Buy | +0.33 | near miss |
| #14 | T | Communications | Hold | +0.32 | near miss |
If the next rebalance landed on today, the book would swap:
- MU in, CIEN out
- NKE in, AVGO out
- MSFT in, ADBE out
- EA in, PANW out
- CRM in, DELL out
- TGT in, VLO out
- DAL in, HPE out
- NUE in, TRV out
Holdings slipping in the ranks
Names we own that no longer rank in today’s top picks. Holdings within five ranks of the cut are protected by the “don’t churn winners” rule; the rest would be replaced at the next rebalance.
| Rank | Name | Sector | Rating today | Peer-adj score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #12 | TRV | Financials | Buy | +0.35 | protected by hysteresis |
| #15 | HPE | Technology | Buy | +0.31 | protected by hysteresis |
| #19 | VLO | Energy | Buy | +0.29 | would exit |
| #20 | DELL | Technology | Buy | +0.29 | would exit |
| #59 | PANW | Technology | Hold | +0.10 | would exit |
| #86 | ADBE | ARKK | Hold | +0.04 | would exit |
| #182 | AVGO | Technology | Hold | -0.26 | would exit |
| #213 | CIEN | Technology | Hold | -0.45 | would exit |
| Date | Symbol | Items | 8-K |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | TRV | 5.02 | read |
| 2026-08-05 | PSX | 2.02,9.01 | read |
| 2026-08-04 | HPE | 7.01 | read |
| 2026-07-30 | VLO | 2.02,9.01 | read |
| 2026-07-24 | HPE | 5.02,7.01,9.01 | read |
| 2026-07-24 | TRV | 8.01,9.01 | read |
| 2026-07-23 | JPM | 8.01,9.01 | read |
| 2026-07-23 | JPM | 5.03 | read |
| 2026-07-17 | ADBE | 5.02 | read |
| 2026-07-17 | TRV | 2.02,9.01 | read |
| 2026-07-16 | VLO | 7.01 | read |
| 2026-07-14 | JPM | 7.01,9.01 | read |
| Date | Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | ADBE | BUY | 572 | $286.08 | $163.68K |
| 2026-09-01 | ANET | SELL | 815 | $189.26 | $154.24K |
| 2026-09-01 | AVGO | BUY | 443 | $369.68 | $163.68K |
| 2026-09-01 | CIEN | BUY | 454 | $360.33 | $163.68K |
| 2026-09-01 | CSCO | SELL | 1.38K | $109.74 | $151.97K |
| 2026-09-01 | DELL | BUY | 31 | $425.00 | $13.19K |
| 2026-09-01 | FTNT | SELL | 1.07K | $161.85 | $172.63K |
| 2026-09-01 | HPE | BUY | 300 | $50.87 | $15.24K |
| 2026-09-01 | JPM | BUY | 461 | $354.95 | $163.68K |
| 2026-09-01 | LITE | SELL | 184 | $868.95 | $159.87K |
| 2026-09-01 | MU | SELL | 188 | $933.44 | $175.72K |
| 2026-09-01 | PANW | BUY | 452 | $362.09 | $163.68K |
| 2026-09-01 | PSX | BUY | 649 | $252.02 | $163.68K |
| 2026-09-01 | TRV | SELL | 14 | $363.92 | $4.98K |
| 2026-09-01 | UNH | SELL | 423 | $396.30 | $167.63K |
| 2026-09-01 | VLO | SELL | 67 | $361.99 | $24.38K |
| 2026-08-12 | ANET | BUY | 815 | $210.50 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | CSCO | BUY | 1.38K | $123.88 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | CVS | SELL | 1.86K | $94.72 | $176.64K |
| 2026-08-12 | DDOG | SELL | 734 | $240.91 | $176.94K |
| 2026-08-12 | DELL | SELL | 103 | $484.50 | $50.13K |
| 2026-08-12 | FTNT | BUY | 1.07K | $160.84 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | HPE | BUY | 2.92K | $58.79 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | INTC | SELL | 1.78K | $100.95 | $179.80K |
| 2026-08-12 | LITE | SELL | 58 | $932.47 | $54.53K |
| 2026-08-12 | MRVL | SELL | 714 | $217.08 | $155.04K |
| 2026-08-12 | SNDK | SELL | 111 | $1,344.29 | $148.61K |
| 2026-08-12 | TRV | BUY | 463 | $370.16 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | UNH | SELL | 32 | $405.59 | $13.15K |
| 2026-08-12 | VLO | BUY | 520 | $330.21 | $171.56K |