Simulated portfolio
The Bid & Ask Demo Portfolio
| Year | Portfolio | S&P 500 | Excess | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | +0.6% | +2.8% | -2.2% | -8.5% |
| 2015 | +10.9% | -0.7% | +11.6% | -11.9% |
| 2016 | +11.2% | +11.2% | -0.1% | -10.3% |
| 2017 | +29.8% | +18.4% | +11.3% | -6.0% |
| 2018 | +4.4% | -7.0% | +11.4% | -22.4% |
| 2019 | +29.2% | +28.7% | +0.5% | -9.0% |
| 2020 | +67.5% | +15.3% | +52.2% | -36.5% |
| 2021 | +39.2% | +28.8% | +10.4% | -12.9% |
| 2022 | -18.7% | -20.0% | +1.3% | -29.0% |
| 2023 | +29.2% | +24.7% | +4.4% | -14.3% |
| 2024 | +56.6% | +24.0% | +32.6% | -23.2% |
| 2025 | +49.3% | +16.6% | +32.7% | -32.6% |
| 2026 | +36.1% | +13.5% | +22.6% | -31.4% |
Partial years at each end. Drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough within that calendar year, not since inception.
$1.70M
▲ $1.60M (+1604.0%)
| Started | 2014-08-14 |
|---|---|
| Capital | $100.00K |
| CAGR | +26.8% |
| Strategy | Top 10 picks, equal weight |
| Universe | Large-cap US equities |
| Rebalance | Monthly |
| Days live | 4364 |
|---|---|
| Annualised return | +27.6% |
| Annualised vol | 27.4% |
| Sharpe | 1.01 |
| Max drawdown | -36.5% |
| Win-day rate | 56.1% |
| Total trades | 965 |
| Open positions | 10 |
Same monthly / 5 bps / 2% band / 5-rank hysteresis / top-10 EW strategy run on five non-overlapping 2-year windows with point-in-time universe membership ($50B mcap, $5M ADV).
| Window | Period | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | S&P 500 | Excess | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent (live) live-demo period | 2024-05-01 → 2026-05-01 | +50.8% | 1.39 | -34.8% | +19.2% | +31.6% | 24 |
| rate-hike era | 2022-05-01 → 2024-05-01 | +25.6% | 1.22 | -13.2% | +12.8% | +12.8% | 24 |
| COVID era | 2020-05-01 → 2022-05-01 | +20.9% | 0.80 | -31.9% | +18.7% | +2.2% | 22 |
| pre-pandemic | 2018-05-01 → 2020-05-01 | +9.0% | 0.44 | -36.0% | +3.9% | +5.1% | 21 |
| late QE | 2016-05-01 → 2018-05-01 | +17.5% | 1.21 | -9.2% | +15.2% | +2.3% | 21 |
Last rebalanced 2026-08-14. Next scheduled check: 2026-08-31. Drift below reflects signals since then — it isn’t yet acted on.
Knocking on the door
Names outscoring at least one of our holdings on a peer-adjusted basis — ranked best first.
| Rank | Name | Sector | Rating today | Peer-adj score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | EA | Communications | Hold | +0.67 | would enter |
| #2 | ROST | Cons. Discr. | Hold | +0.59 | would enter |
| #3 | APP | Communications | Hold | +0.56 | would enter |
| #4 | BMY | Health Care | Buy | +0.50 | would enter |
| #7 | MPC | Energy | Buy | +0.43 | would enter |
| #9 | ALL | Financials | Buy | +0.42 | would enter |
| #10 | ABNB | Cons. Discr. | Hold | +0.40 | would enter |
| #11 | NUE | Materials | Hold | +0.40 | near miss |
| #13 | DDOG | ARKK | Hold | +0.39 | near miss |
If the next rebalance landed on today, the book would swap:
- EA in, LITE out
- ROST in, CSCO out
- APP in, ANET out
- BMY in, UNH out
- MPC in, MU out
- ALL in, HPE out
- ABNB in, DELL out
Holdings slipping in the ranks
Names we own that no longer rank in today’s top picks. Holdings within five ranks of the cut are protected by the “don’t churn winners” rule; the rest would be replaced at the next rebalance.
| Rank | Name | Sector | Rating today | Peer-adj score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #12 | DELL | Technology | Buy | +0.40 | protected by hysteresis |
| #14 | HPE | Technology | Buy | +0.39 | protected by hysteresis |
| #15 | MU | Technology | Buy | +0.37 | protected by hysteresis |
| #19 | UNH | Health Care | Hold | +0.35 | would exit |
| #39 | ANET | Technology | Buy | +0.25 | would exit |
| #50 | CSCO | Technology | Buy | +0.20 | would exit |
| #196 | LITE | Technology | Hold | -0.32 | would exit |
| Symbol | Shares | Entry | Entry $ | Last | Mkt Value | Unr P&L | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 188 | 2025-12-01 | $240.23 | $971.66 | $182.92K | +304.5% | 10.7% |
| VLO | 520 | 2026-08-12 | $330.21 | $341.67 | $177.51K | +3.5% | 10.4% |
| DELL | 354 | 2026-07-01 | $424.55 | $490.81 | $173.79K | +15.6% | 10.2% |
| TRV | 463 | 2026-08-12 | $370.16 | $370.36 | $171.65K | +0.1% | 10.1% |
| HPE | 2.92K | 2026-08-12 | $58.79 | $58.71 | $171.32K | -0.1% | 10.1% |
| FTNT | 1.07K | 2026-08-12 | $160.84 | $160.01 | $170.67K | -0.5% | 10.0% |
| LITE | 184 | 2026-03-02 | $783.25 | $926.14 | $170.39K | +18.2% | 10.0% |
| UNH | 423 | 2026-07-01 | $426.54 | $401.73 | $169.92K | -5.8% | 10.0% |
| ANET | 815 | 2026-08-12 | $210.50 | $198.82 | $162.04K | -5.5% | 9.5% |
| CSCO | 1.38K | 2026-08-12 | $123.88 | $111.68 | $154.66K | -9.8% | 9.1% |
| Date | Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | ANET | BUY | 815 | $210.50 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | CSCO | BUY | 1.38K | $123.88 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | CVS | SELL | 1.86K | $94.72 | $176.64K |
| 2026-08-12 | DDOG | SELL | 734 | $240.91 | $176.94K |
| 2026-08-12 | DELL | SELL | 103 | $484.50 | $50.13K |
| 2026-08-12 | FTNT | BUY | 1.07K | $160.84 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | HPE | BUY | 2.92K | $58.79 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | INTC | SELL | 1.78K | $100.95 | $179.80K |
| 2026-08-12 | LITE | SELL | 58 | $932.47 | $54.53K |
| 2026-08-12 | MRVL | SELL | 714 | $217.08 | $155.04K |
| 2026-08-12 | SNDK | SELL | 111 | $1,344.29 | $148.61K |
| 2026-08-12 | TRV | BUY | 463 | $370.16 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | UNH | SELL | 32 | $405.59 | $13.15K |
| 2026-08-12 | VLO | BUY | 520 | $330.21 | $171.56K |
| 2026-08-12 | WDC | SELL | 387 | $454.10 | $175.81K |
| 2026-07-01 | CIEN | SELL | 316 | $462.44 | $145.93K |
| 2026-07-01 | CVS | BUY | 1.86K | $104.17 | $194.25K |
| 2026-07-01 | DDOG | BUY | 734 | $264.48 | $194.25K |
| 2026-07-01 | DELL | BUY | 458 | $424.55 | $194.25K |
| 2026-07-01 | FIX | SELL | 89 | $1,865.15 | $166.92K |
| 2026-07-01 | GS | SELL | 186 | $1,019.61 | $189.34K |
| 2026-07-01 | LITE | BUY | 70 | $801.16 | $55.87K |
| 2026-07-01 | MRVL | BUY | 714 | $271.98 | $194.25K |
| 2026-07-01 | NUE | SELL | 776 | $219.02 | $170.00K |
| 2026-07-01 | ROST | SELL | 871 | $211.90 | $184.51K |
| 2026-07-01 | UNH | BUY | 455 | $426.54 | $194.25K |
| 2026-06-01 | FDX | SELL | 454 | $337.22 | $153.25K |
| 2026-06-01 | GOOG | SELL | 371 | $372.36 | $138.24K |
| 2026-06-01 | GS | BUY | 186 | $1,048.58 | $194.72K |
| 2026-06-01 | INTC | BUY | 1.78K | $109.33 | $194.72K |