Short-term play
Bearish divergence (short)
Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.
Mirror of the bullish version, on the short side. Price made a new pivot high while RSI or MACD made a LOWER high — buying momentum is fading even as price grinds up. The only short-direction signal in the repo with real edge — all the other 'bearish' chart patterns are actually contrarian-long.
Recommended position
- Structure
- Short 105 % strike call · long 120 % strike call · 15 days to expiry
- Take profit
- Close at +50 % of credit received
- Stop loss
- Close at −100 % of credit (i.e. underlying breaches break-even)
- Expected per trade
- +14 % mean over capital at risk, 92 % hit rate, Sharpe 1.05 (highest in the repo).
- Thesis
- RSI/MACD divergence at a fresh higher high is the only short-side signal in the repo with consistent year-by-year negative forward returns. Sell the elevated upside call (overextended runup → rich IV) and cap the tail at +20 %.
- Important note
- Hit-rate is very high but a single bad trade wipes out four wins. Size positions accordingly; the 1.05 Sharpe is genuine and across-year-stable but only with disciplined stops.
MPC$393.52Energy+2.00+5.00161.3%+2.77
Credit$1,476
Max win$1,476
Stop loss−$1,476
HZO$52.44Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00145.3%+1.58
Credit$197
Max win$197
Stop loss−$197
PRAA$20.65Financials+2.00+5.00101.5%+0.13
Credit$77
Max win$77
Stop loss−$77
LPG$53.43Energy+2.00+6.00143.7%+0.13
Credit$200
Max win$200
Stop loss−$200
PSX$255.75Energy+2.00+6.00116.3%+2.42
Credit$959
Max win$959
Stop loss−$959
AVTR$15.25Health Care+1.00+6.00114.0%+11.38
Credit$57
Max win$57
Stop loss−$57
PAYC$220.46Technology+1.00+7.00100.4%+5.73
Credit$827
Max win$827
Stop loss−$827
SM$33.91Energy+2.00+8.00135.0%+0.47
Credit$127
Max win$127
Stop loss−$127
APA$42.74Energy+1.00+8.00118.9%+3.25
Credit$160
Max win$160
Stop loss−$160
TALO$16.47Energy+2.00+8.00105.3%+0.25
Credit$62
Max win$62
Stop loss−$62
PR$21.36Energy+1.00+8.00102.6%+4.96
Credit$80
Max win$80
Stop loss−$80
LFST$11.84Health Care+2.00+9.00178.2%+0.13
Credit$44
Max win$44
Stop loss−$44
PBF$73.69Energy+1.00+10.00200.9%+3.07
Credit$276
Max win$276
Stop loss−$276
NSIT$159.03Technology+1.00+10.00156.7%+11.63
Credit$596
Max win$596
Stop loss−$596
Recent triggers
The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.
| Date | Symbol | Entry | +5 days | +10 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | ANDE | $71.24 | -3.8 % | +1.1 % | +4.6 % |
| 2026-03-12 | MOS | $31.36 | -16.5 % | -20.3 % | -21.0 % |
| 2026-03-12 | OHI | $48.40 | -3.3 % | -8.0 % | -5.4 % |
| 2026-03-12 | PCRX | $23.53 | -4.1 % | -0.9 % | +1.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | WLK | $114.22 | -2.6 % | -0.7 % | +3.6 % |
| 2026-03-11 | KNTK | $46.14 | -0.8 % | +2.3 % | -0.8 % |
| 2026-03-11 | LYV | $165.83 | -5.6 % | -6.6 % | -1.3 % |
| 2026-03-11 | UTHR | $544.71 | -2.6 % | -0.6 % | +5.5 % |
| 2026-03-10 | NPK | $143.97 | -6.4 % | -7.6 % | -0.3 % |
| 2026-03-10 | VIR | $9.88 | -4.0 % | -13.3 % | -3.6 % |
| 2026-03-10 | VRT | $270.06 | -0.6 % | +0.3 % | +4.1 % |
| 2026-03-10 | VRTX | $499.17 | -7.3 % | -10.1 % | -11.1 % |
| 2026-03-09 | FANG | $182.86 | -0.3 % | +4.9 % | +6.9 % |
| 2026-03-09 | HCA | $545.13 | -3.7 % | -9.3 % | -10.2 % |
| 2026-03-09 | NTCT | $30.43 | -0.8 % | +3.7 % | +8.8 % |
| 2026-03-09 | SPHR | $117.74 | -5.8 % | -5.6 % | +5.5 % |
| 2026-03-09 | TIP | $111.61 | -0.5 % | -1.3 % | -0.6 % |
| 2026-03-09 | TPL | $539.79 | -2.4 % | -2.2 % | -16.7 % |
| 2026-03-09 | UTL | $53.29 | -0.7 % | -3.2 % | +1.3 % |
| 2026-03-06 | CALM | $89.84 | -2.2 % | -12.8 % | -12.1 % |
Scanner refreshed 2026-09-27. 14 matches.