The Bid & Ask

Quotations, Dispatches, and the Daily Tape

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Short-term play

Bearish divergence (short)

Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.

← All setups

Mirror of the bullish version, on the short side. Price made a new pivot high while RSI or MACD made a LOWER high — buying momentum is fading even as price grinds up. The only short-direction signal in the repo with real edge — all the other 'bearish' chart patterns are actually contrarian-long.

Recommended position

Structure
Short 105 % strike call · long 120 % strike call · 15 days to expiry
Take profit
Close at +50 % of credit received
Stop loss
Close at −100 % of credit (i.e. underlying breaches break-even)
Expected per trade
+14 % mean over capital at risk, 92 % hit rate, Sharpe 1.05 (highest in the repo).
Thesis
RSI/MACD divergence at a fresh higher high is the only short-side signal in the repo with consistent year-by-year negative forward returns. Sell the elevated upside call (overextended runup → rich IV) and cap the tail at +20 %.
Important note
Hit-rate is very high but a single bad trade wipes out four wins. Size positions accordingly; the 1.05 Sharpe is genuine and across-year-stable but only with disciplined stops.
Show columns:
SymbolLastSectorDivergence kindDays since pivotRun from 1-year lowOscillator drop
ARWR$87.25Health Care+1.00+6.00462.4%+5.25
59.7675.3891.01Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 91.61 long 104.70 Break-even ~94.88
Credit$327
Max win$327
Stop loss−$327
ANDE$65.61Cons. Staples+2.00+6.00115.1%+0.91
63.2672.4981.71Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 68.89 long 78.73 Break-even ~71.35
Credit$246
Max win$246
Stop loss−$246
ZD$54.94Communications+1.00+6.00108.9%+4.09
39.7747.9456.12Apr 6Jun 9Aug 12
short 57.69 long 65.93 Break-even ~59.75
Credit$206
Max win$206
Stop loss−$206
WT$22.73Financials+2.00+6.00108.7%+0.08
14.5518.8323.12Apr 6Jun 9Aug 12
short 23.87 long 27.28 Break-even ~24.72
Credit$85
Max win$85
Stop loss−$85
BFH$110.45Financials+1.00+6.00107.9%+11.57
72.4293.39114.36Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 115.97 long 132.54 Break-even ~120.11
Credit$414
Max win$414
Stop loss−$414
INSW$92.38Energy+1.00+8.00141.1%+3.28
71.3184.3397.36Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 97.00 long 110.86 Break-even ~100.46
Credit$346
Max win$346
Stop loss−$346
VLO$330.21Energy+2.00+8.00137.5%+0.89
218.32276.93335.54Apr 6Jun 9Aug 12
short 346.72 long 396.25 Break-even ~359.10
Credit$1,238
Max win$1,238
Stop loss−$1,238
ILMN$192.91Health Care+1.00+8.00125.4%+6.30
116.13162.74209.34Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 202.56 long 231.49 Break-even ~209.79
Credit$723
Max win$723
Stop loss−$723
CORT$112.18Health Care+1.00+9.00268.0%+7.33
37.8680.00122.15Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 117.79 long 134.62 Break-even ~122.00
Credit$421
Max win$421
Stop loss−$421
NSP$50.39Industrials+2.00+9.00171.5%+0.20
23.5839.5355.48Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 52.91 long 60.47 Break-even ~54.80
Credit$189
Max win$189
Stop loss−$189
BJRI$69.70Cons. Discr.+2.00+9.00158.8%+0.43
35.0355.5876.13Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 73.18 long 83.64 Break-even ~75.80
Credit$261
Max win$261
Stop loss−$261
BRKR$59.27Health Care+1.00+9.00119.2%+4.11
32.7949.3165.84Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 62.23 long 71.12 Break-even ~64.46
Credit$222
Max win$222
Stop loss−$222
MSGS$414.12Communications+1.00+9.00110.3%+4.54
316.07367.43418.79Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 434.83 long 496.94 Break-even ~450.36
Credit$1,553
Max win$1,553
Stop loss−$1,553
AMRX$17.66Health Care+1.00+10.00144.2%+9.26
11.4515.4619.46Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 18.54 long 21.19 Break-even ~19.21
Credit$66
Max win$66
Stop loss−$66
DVA$181.50Health Care+1.00+10.00132.0%+15.23
139.75192.77245.78Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 190.58 long 217.80 Break-even ~197.38
Credit$681
Max win$681
Stop loss−$681
GSHD$65.55Financials+1.00+10.00105.8%+4.50
32.5552.5572.54Apr 7Jun 10Aug 13
short 68.83 long 78.66 Break-even ~71.29
Credit$246
Max win$246
Stop loss−$246
YOU$46.16Technology+2.00+10.00102.5%+0.36
45.3554.2663.17Apr 6Jun 9Aug 12
short 48.47 long 55.39 Break-even ~50.20
Credit$173
Max win$173
Stop loss−$173

Recent triggers

The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.

Date Symbol Entry +5 days +10 days +20 days
2026-03-12ANDE$71.24-3.8 %+1.1 %+4.6 %
2026-03-12MOS$31.36-16.5 %-20.3 %-21.0 %
2026-03-12OHI$48.40-3.3 %-8.0 %-5.4 %
2026-03-12PCRX$23.53-4.1 %-0.9 %+1.1 %
2026-03-12WLK$114.22-2.6 %-0.7 %+3.6 %
2026-03-11KNTK$46.14-0.8 %+2.3 %-0.8 %
2026-03-11LYV$165.83-5.6 %-6.6 %-1.3 %
2026-03-11UTHR$544.71-2.6 %-0.6 %+5.5 %
2026-03-10NPK$143.97-6.4 %-7.6 %-0.3 %
2026-03-10VIR$9.88-4.0 %-13.3 %-3.6 %
2026-03-10VRT$270.06-0.6 %+0.3 %+4.1 %
2026-03-10VRTX$499.17-7.3 %-10.1 %-11.1 %
2026-03-09FANG$182.86-0.3 %+4.9 %+6.9 %
2026-03-09HCA$545.13-3.7 %-9.3 %-10.2 %
2026-03-09NTCT$30.43-0.8 %+3.7 %+8.8 %
2026-03-09SPHR$117.74-5.8 %-5.6 %+5.5 %
2026-03-09TIP$111.61-0.5 %-1.3 %-0.6 %
2026-03-09TPL$539.79-2.4 %-2.2 %-16.7 %
2026-03-09UTL$53.29-0.7 %-3.2 %+1.3 %
2026-03-06CALM$89.84-2.2 %-12.8 %-12.1 %

Scanner refreshed 2026-08-12. 17 matches.