Evolution

In one line: The dominant operator in its category at 10× EBIT with an 8% free cash flow yield — cheap because the market is pricing a jurisdiction problem, not an operating one.

Live casino supplier, SEK 138bn, 10.3× EV/EBIT, 12.0× earnings, an 8.1% free cash flow yield and a 5.05% dividend, with net cash.

The quality is not in question. Operating margin of 58.8% is roughly three times the next-highest business in the Swedish universe, ROIC is 31.8%, incremental ROIC 68.2%, and it holds 65–70% of the global business-to-business live casino market.

What has changed is the character of the investment. The de-rating is not the market being slow:

Earnings rose into 2024 and the multiple halved anyway. The reason is disclosed and quantifiable. Asia is about 37% of revenue and fell 8.9% year on year on cybercrime crackdowns; roughly 51% of group revenue still comes from unregulated markets; there is a live UK Gambling Commission review of third-party misuse of its technology; and Pragmatic Play is competing on content and price in live for the first time. Revenue was flat between 2024 and 2025 and fell 1.2% in the most recent quarter, so this is no longer a growth business.

The downside is at least bounded. Halve Asia at 70% drop-through and EBIT falls about 21%, putting the shares on roughly 13× impaired earnings. That is a bad outcome rather than a ruinous one, and the 8% cash yield pays you to wait.

The honest caveat. Judged against the original criteria — a business you can understand, with durable economics — a supplier with half its revenue in grey markets and an open regulatory file does not qualify, whatever the returns on capital say. This is a value position wearing a quality screen's clothing. Size it as such, and note that seventeen analysts currently have a target below the share price.