The Bid & Ask

Quotations, Dispatches, and the Daily Tape

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Rejected thesis

Ascending / descending triangle (isolated)

The result

Thesis (rejected): Isolating asymmetric triangles from symmetrical pennants — horizontal R with rising S (ascending) or horizontal S with falling R (descending) — should expose the classic "pressure into a wall" geometry that pennants average away.

Code: research/triangle.py Report: research/triangle_report.json (n=1,335)

Edge sign-corrected so positive = pattern direction works.

Bucket n 5d edge 10d edge 20d edge 40d edge
ascending / all 855 -0.26 % -0.49 % -0.52 % -1.30 %
ascending OOS 20+ 303 -0.13 % -0.60 % -0.61 % -2.86 %
descending / all 480 +0.08 % +0.21 % -0.10 % -0.83 %
descending OOS 20+ 213 -0.09 % +0.08 % -0.57 % -2.12 %

Note: hit-rate on descending (sign-corrected) is 0.42 — meaning 58 % of descending-triangle breakdowns reverse and go up. That matches the broader "failed breakdown / bear-trap" pattern but is too weak to operationalise here.

Verdict: Reject both subtypes as long/short pattern signals.

At a glance
Sample1,335
Validatorresearch/triangle.py
VerdictRejected

Every result here is reproducible from the script named above. Reports are in the repository.

Other rejected theses