Bearish RSI / MACD divergence — first real SHORT alpha in the repo

Code: research/bearish_divergence.py Report: research/bearish_divergence_report.json

Mirror of bullish_divergence: price prints a fresh higher pivot HIGH while the momentum oscillator (RSI or MACD histogram) makes a LOWER high. Buying momentum is exhausting even as price keeps grinding up.

Every other bearish chart pattern we tested turned out contrarian long (death cross, bear flag, downside gaps, bull pennant breakdown). Divergence is the exception — it's structural (a price-vs-momentum relationship), not a level reading, and it works symmetrically.

Why this matters: nearly every other "bearish" pattern in the repo is also a long signal (contrarian bounce family). Bearish divergence is the only structural signal that actually produces meaningfully negative forward returns. Magnitude is symmetric with the bullish version (~5 % edge), and stratifying by run-up (analogue of the drawdown stratification on the long side) sharpens it.

Practical use: pair with put spreads or short-stock positions. 67 % down-hit on n=18k is enough sample to productize as a bearish_div short cohort. Combine with VIX context (VIX < 20 + bearish_div = strongest case for the top).