Bullish-engulfing × drawdown (short-horizon variant) · Null results

The result

Code: research/bullish_reversal_combo.py Report: research/bullish_reversal_combo_report.json

Stratifies the bullish engulfing candle by trailing-252d drawdown. On unconditional n=26,146 the edge is +0.8 % at 20d. Conditioning on deeper drawdown lifts it cleanly:

Filter	n	20d edge	40d edge
bullish_engulf_all	25707	+0.83 %	+1.24 %
bullish_engulf dd < -10%	20042	+1.00 %	+1.51 %
bullish_engulf dd < -20%	12291	+1.35 %	+2.06 %
bullish_engulf dd < -30%	6923	+1.88 %	+2.96 %

The short-horizon variant of the same effect: the engulfing candle provides per-name timing while the drawdown provides the cohort. The edge is smaller than the death-cross variant but the holding period is shorter (5-40d vs 60-250d), and the n is much larger.

At a glance

Sample	26,146
Validator	research/bullish_reversal_combo.py
Verdict	Rejected

Every result here is reproducible from the script named above. Reports are in the repository.

Other rejected theses

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