Rejected thesis
Bullish OBV (volume-flow) divergence
Code: research/obv_divergence.py
Report: research/obv_divergence_report.json (n=9,013)
Third independent divergence mechanism — same template as RSI/MACD but on cumulative signed volume. Lower n than MACD div (more selective) but similar edge magnitudes:
| Bucket | n | 20d edge | 40d edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| obv_div all | 9,013 | +4.8 % | +4.5 % |
| obv_div dd ≤ -30% | 1,586 | +8.1 % | +9.0 % |
| obv_div OOS 2020+ dd ≤ -30% | 1,065 | +8.7 % | +9.9 % |
Three independent divergence detectors (RSI / MACD / OBV) all producing +9-13 % edge at 40 d in drawdown OOS, with 74-80 % hit rates, is strong triangulation. Divergence as a signal family is robust.
| Sample | 9,013 |
|---|---|
| Validator | research/obv_divergence.py |
| Verdict | Rejected |
Every result here is reproducible from the script named above. Reports are in the repository.
- Volatility squeeze
- Pre-FOMC drift
- Uptrend pullback
- Momentum continuation
- Industry-relative momentum (at 4-week lookback)
- Earnings-reaction reversal (anti-PEAD)
- Beat-persistence pre-earnings drift
- Sector ETF mean-reversion
- 52-week-high breakout
- Volume accumulation (above-200DMA +...
- Cross-sector momentum
- Analyst-upgrade cluster