The Bid & Ask

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Thursday, August 13, 2026

Rejected thesis

NR-cluster breakout (consecutive narrow-range days)

The result

Thesis (rejected): Single-day NR7 was previously null/contrarian. Hypothesis: a cluster of ≥2 consecutive NR7 days (today's range narrower than each of the prior 6) is a stronger compression signal because it requires sustained range contraction. Breakout day: close > rolling 7+cluster-day high on volume ≥ 1.2×.

Code: research/nr_cluster.py Report: research/nr_cluster_report.json (n=2,900)

Bucket n 5d edge 10d edge 20d edge 40d edge
all 2900 -0.19 % -0.31 % -0.43 % -0.88 %
cluster = 2 2529 -0.21 % -0.36 % -0.43 % -0.95 %
cluster ≥ 3 371 -0.01 % +0.07 % -0.38 % -0.35 %
OOS 2020+ cluster ≥3 176 +0.31 % +0.79 % -0.13 % +0.06 %

Longer clusters flatten the edge toward zero rather than turning it positive. The single-day NR7 null result generalises to the cluster version — sustained compression alone does not predict forward returns once we condition on the breakout-on-volume trigger that everything else in the survivor list also has.

Verdict: Reject. Compression-then-breakout works in coil_breakout and bull_flag; adding the NR7-stack requirement doesn't add lift.

At a glance
Sample2,900
Validatorresearch/nr_cluster.py
VerdictRejected

Every result here is reproducible from the script named above. Reports are in the repository.

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