The Bid & Ask

Quotations, Dispatches, and the Daily Tape

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Rejected thesis

Rectangle / horizontal-range breakout

The result

Thesis (rejected): A true rectangle — ≥3 touches at horizontal support AND ≥3 touches at horizontal resistance over the prior 60 days, range height ≤ 20 % — should add information beyond what coil_breakout (no touch-count requirement) already finds.

Code: research/rectangle_breakout.py Report: research/rectangle_breakout_report.json (n=5,132)

Bucket n 5d edge 10d edge 20d edge 40d edge
all 5132 -0.02 % +0.01 % -0.47 % -1.51 %
OOS 2020+ 1661 +0.11 % +0.06 % -0.95 % -3.34 %
dd ≤ -15% 319 -0.18 % -0.76 % -1.28 % -2.30 %

Verdict: Reject. The multi-touch requirement does not improve on coil_breakout; if anything, the longer 60-day flat structure selects names that are less primed (older bases that have already been picked over) than the 10-day coil cohort.

At a glance
Sample5,132
Validatorresearch/rectangle_breakout.py
VerdictRejected

Every result here is reproducible from the script named above. Reports are in the repository.

Other rejected theses