Sector-relative drawdown overlay

Code: research/sector_relative_dd.py Report: research/sector_relative_dd_report.json

Companion to the SPY-relative overlay. For each drawdown_bounce event, look up the stock's SPDR sector ETF and the ETF's own trailing-252d drawdown. The sector filter is sharper than the SPY one because SPY masks sector dispersion (a stock can be down 30 % while SPY is up 5 % but the sector is actually down 15 %).

The "laggard catch-up" hypothesis (stock weak, sector strong → name rotates higher to match peers) is false — those stocks are genuinely idiosyncratic losers, not waiting-to-rotate laggards.

Live cohort recommendation: pair the SPY-dd gate with a sector-dd gate. Skip every drawdown signal when sector_dd > -5 %; demand sector_dd ≤ -10 % for highest-conviction entries. This filter likely removes most of the survivorship-bias risk from the deep-drawdown cohorts.