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THE INDEPENDENT RESEARCH DESK / 28 Sep 2026

Short-term play

Bullish divergence

Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.

← All setups

Price made a new pivot low recently, but RSI, MACD, or OBV printed a HIGHER reading than at the prior swing low. Momentum is diverging from price — typically a sign the selling pressure is exhausting. Works across regimes, amplifies in elevated VIX.

Recommended position

Structure
Long 100 % strike call · short 115 % strike call · 30 days to expiry
Take profit
Close at +100 % of capital at risk
Stop loss
Close at −50 % of capital at risk
Expected per trade
+54 % mean over capital at risk, 70 % hit rate, Sharpe 0.71 (validation across 149k simulated trades).
Thesis
Momentum divergence at a swing low has signalled a bounce in every OOS year tested. The debit call spread captures the directional move with bounded premium — naked calls work too (similar mean) but the spread has the cleanest risk-adjusted return.
Important note
Validation IV proxy is HV30 × 1.30. Real-trade entry IV varies; adjust strikes to listed prices. Hit rate is high but tail-loss is real — the −50 % stop will fire roughly 25-30 % of the time historically.
Show columns:
SymbolLastSectorDivergence kindDays since pivotOff 1-year highOscillator lift
NKE$35.75Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00-52.4%+0.08
34.9241.4447.96May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 35.75 short 41.11 Break-even ~37.89
Cost$214
Max win$322
Stop loss−$107
ESAB$71.91Industrials+2.00+5.00-51.8%+0.51
62.8885.57108.26May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 71.91 short 82.70 Break-even ~76.22
Cost$431
Max win$647
Stop loss−$216
DKS$136.43Cons. Discr.+1.00+5.00-49.3%+8.54
115.25180.16245.07May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 136.43 short 156.89 Break-even ~144.62
Cost$819
Max win$1,228
Stop loss−$409
GPI$252.18Cons. Discr.+1.00+5.00-46.5%+5.54
240.84302.19363.55May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 252.18 short 290.01 Break-even ~267.31
Cost$1,513
Max win$2,270
Stop loss−$757
WINA$296.35Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00-44.9%+2.74
278.14357.82437.49May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 296.35 short 340.80 Break-even ~314.13
Cost$1,778
Max win$2,667
Stop loss−$889
NCLH$14.61Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00-44.8%+0.06
13.7318.0222.31May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 14.61 short 16.80 Break-even ~15.49
Cost$88
Max win$131
Stop loss−$44
WWW$19.07Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00-38.2%+0.04
14.3817.8721.35May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 19.07 short 21.93 Break-even ~20.21
Cost$114
Max win$172
Stop loss−$57
JBTM$110.09Industrials+2.00+5.00-34.7%+1.41
108.10129.03149.95May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 110.09 short 126.60 Break-even ~116.70
Cost$661
Max win$991
Stop loss−$330
ATMU$44.71Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00-33.1%+0.12
43.3349.5055.68May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 44.71 short 51.42 Break-even ~47.39
Cost$268
Max win$402
Stop loss−$134
GOLF$83.02Cons. Discr.+2.00+5.00-32.0%+0.21
78.6599.54120.43May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 83.02 short 95.47 Break-even ~88.00
Cost$498
Max win$747
Stop loss−$249
ODFL$173.30Industrials+2.00+5.00-30.4%+1.21
169.21210.86252.52May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 173.30 short 199.30 Break-even ~183.70
Cost$1,040
Max win$1,560
Stop loss−$520
MTZ$212.85Industrials+2.00+6.00-52.5%+7.17
196.68318.42440.16May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 212.85 short 244.78 Break-even ~225.62
Cost$1,277
Max win$1,916
Stop loss−$639
LII$373.77Industrials+1.00+6.00-37.3%+4.16
348.39466.01583.64May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 373.77 short 429.84 Break-even ~396.20
Cost$2,243
Max win$3,364
Stop loss−$1,121
ALB$109.73Materials+1.00+7.00-49.2%+3.39
104.79142.86180.93May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 109.73 short 126.19 Break-even ~116.31
Cost$658
Max win$988
Stop loss−$329
FND$47.06Cons. Discr.+2.00+7.00-49.1%+0.31
43.3053.4563.61May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 47.06 short 54.12 Break-even ~49.88
Cost$282
Max win$424
Stop loss−$141
RXO$19.79Industrials+2.00+7.00-34.9%+0.60
18.5724.1929.81May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 19.79 short 22.76 Break-even ~20.98
Cost$119
Max win$178
Stop loss−$59
CRI$31.31Cons. Discr.+2.00+7.00-34.6%+0.26
28.3136.1944.07May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 31.31 short 36.01 Break-even ~33.19
Cost$188
Max win$282
Stop loss−$94
ALK$40.94Industrials+1.00+7.00-34.1%+5.55
35.3345.0354.74May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 40.94 short 47.08 Break-even ~43.40
Cost$246
Max win$368
Stop loss−$123
AAL$13.87Industrials+2.00+7.00-30.0%+0.22
11.7615.1118.45May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 13.87 short 15.95 Break-even ~14.70
Cost$83
Max win$125
Stop loss−$42
WING$99.07Cons. Discr.+1.00+8.00-64.6%+8.22
93.83137.92182.00May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 99.07 short 113.93 Break-even ~105.01
Cost$594
Max win$892
Stop loss−$297
STRL$512.29Industrials+2.00+8.00-53.8%+7.99
429.22724.921020.62May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 512.29 short 589.13 Break-even ~543.03
Cost$3,074
Max win$4,611
Stop loss−$1,537
AAON$89.10Industrials+1.00+8.00-49.9%+13.68
70.62111.28151.95May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 89.10 short 102.46 Break-even ~94.45
Cost$535
Max win$802
Stop loss−$267
POOL$164.91Industrials+2.00+8.00-49.2%+1.64
158.82190.59222.36May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 164.91 short 189.65 Break-even ~174.80
Cost$989
Max win$1,484
Stop loss−$495
RH$124.17Cons. Discr.+2.00+8.00-46.5%+3.76
117.44158.67199.90May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 124.17 short 142.80 Break-even ~131.62
Cost$745
Max win$1,118
Stop loss−$373
MYRG$292.58Industrials+1.00+8.00-45.9%+3.98
259.80386.21512.62May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 292.58 short 336.47 Break-even ~310.13
Cost$1,755
Max win$2,633
Stop loss−$878
GNRC$208.14Industrials+1.00+8.00-40.8%+7.43
169.00235.29301.57May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 208.14 short 239.36 Break-even ~220.63
Cost$1,249
Max win$1,873
Stop loss−$624
WSC$18.17Industrials+2.00+8.00-37.9%+0.27
17.1823.4129.64May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 18.17 short 20.90 Break-even ~19.26
Cost$109
Max win$164
Stop loss−$55
ASTE$41.28Industrials+1.00+8.00-37.1%+9.44
39.5351.1762.80May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 41.28 short 47.47 Break-even ~43.76
Cost$248
Max win$372
Stop loss−$124
TLN$304.42Utilities+2.00+8.00-36.7%+6.46
274.35360.13445.92May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 304.42 short 350.08 Break-even ~322.69
Cost$1,827
Max win$2,740
Stop loss−$913
SLVM$35.96Materials+2.00+8.00-36.3%+0.09
34.1738.0741.96May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 35.96 short 41.35 Break-even ~38.12
Cost$216
Max win$324
Stop loss−$108
DECK$78.67Cons. Discr.+2.00+8.00-35.9%+0.62
75.6795.94116.21May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 78.67 short 90.47 Break-even ~83.39
Cost$472
Max win$708
Stop loss−$236
AEIS$279.68Industrials+1.00+8.00-35.6%+3.79
243.69319.40395.11May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 279.68 short 321.63 Break-even ~296.46
Cost$1,678
Max win$2,517
Stop loss−$839
JBLU$4.40Industrials+2.00+8.00-33.9%+0.13
4.165.346.52May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 4.40 short 5.06 Break-even ~4.66
Cost$26
Max win$40
Stop loss−$13
POWL$189.53Industrials+1.00+9.00-47.0%+6.58
163.58239.86316.13May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 189.53 short 217.96 Break-even ~200.90
Cost$1,137
Max win$1,706
Stop loss−$569
WS$36.26Materials+2.00+9.00-33.6%+0.28
31.4337.9144.39May 19Jul 24Sep 25
long 36.26 short 41.70 Break-even ~38.44
Cost$218
Max win$326
Stop loss−$109

Recent triggers

The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.

Date Symbol Entry +5 days +10 days +20 days
2026-03-13TMO$464.37+2.2 %+1.9 %+10.7 %
2026-03-12AJG$204.21+2.7 %+3.0 %+4.6 %
2026-03-12ARES$96.50+11.9 %+11.8 %+4.1 %
2026-03-12BMI$144.30+2.8 %+4.8 %+7.6 %
2026-03-12BSX$68.55+2.0 %+2.4 %-9.9 %
2026-03-12BX$102.12+11.1 %+7.4 %+12.4 %
2026-03-12CBRE$131.84+1.0 %+2.3 %+7.1 %
2026-03-12CG$45.31+5.3 %+3.2 %+4.4 %
2026-03-12CWK$11.89+2.0 %+1.5 %+11.2 %
2026-03-12DUOL$94.92+4.9 %+3.4 %-5.2 %
2026-03-12EVR$267.19+2.9 %+6.6 %+26.5 %
2026-03-12HLNE$94.23+7.2 %+3.5 %-2.1 %
2026-03-12LYFT$12.95+3.3 %+0.3 %+2.2 %
2026-03-12MC$51.38+5.0 %+7.9 %+22.7 %
2026-03-12MS$154.37+2.7 %+5.7 %+15.1 %
2026-03-12NAVI$8.06+0.6 %+2.1 %-1.5 %
2026-03-12PEN$334.99+0.7 %+0.4 %-1.6 %
2026-03-12PJT$129.05+1.2 %+7.9 %+17.0 %
2026-03-12POOL$204.12+0.1 %-1.5 %+5.3 %
2026-03-12RGEN$113.76+3.4 %+0.6 %+5.6 %

Scanner refreshed 2026-09-27. 35 matches.