Short-term play
Bullish divergence
Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.
Price made a new pivot low recently, but RSI, MACD, or OBV printed a HIGHER reading than at the prior swing low. Momentum is diverging from price — typically a sign the selling pressure is exhausting. Works across regimes, amplifies in elevated VIX.
Recommended position
- Structure
- Long 100 % strike call · short 115 % strike call · 30 days to expiry
- Take profit
- Close at +100 % of capital at risk
- Stop loss
- Close at −50 % of capital at risk
- Expected per trade
- +54 % mean over capital at risk, 70 % hit rate, Sharpe 0.71 (validation across 149k simulated trades).
- Thesis
- Momentum divergence at a swing low has signalled a bounce in every OOS year tested. The debit call spread captures the directional move with bounded premium — naked calls work too (similar mean) but the spread has the cleanest risk-adjusted return.
- Important note
- Validation IV proxy is HV30 × 1.30. Real-trade entry IV varies; adjust strikes to listed prices. Hit rate is high but tail-loss is real — the −50 % stop will fire roughly 25-30 % of the time historically.
PATK$86.76Cons. Discr.+2.00+8.00-43.4%+0.38
Cost$521
Max win$781
Stop loss−$260
LEN$85.20Cons. Discr.+2.00+8.00-42.2%+0.94
Cost$511
Max win$767
Stop loss−$256
MBC$9.21Cons. Discr.+2.00+9.00-41.0%+0.02
Cost$55
Max win$83
Stop loss−$28
ORA$113.40Utilities+2.00+10.00-35.0%+2.95
Cost$680
Max win$1,021
Stop loss−$340
Recent triggers
The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.
| Date | Symbol | Entry | +5 days | +10 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | TMO | $464.37 | +2.2 % | +1.9 % | +10.7 % |
| 2026-03-12 | AJG | $204.21 | +2.7 % | +3.0 % | +4.6 % |
| 2026-03-12 | ARES | $96.50 | +11.9 % | +11.8 % | +4.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | BMI | $144.30 | +2.8 % | +4.8 % | +7.6 % |
| 2026-03-12 | BSX | $68.55 | +2.0 % | +2.4 % | -9.9 % |
| 2026-03-12 | BX | $102.12 | +11.1 % | +7.4 % | +12.4 % |
| 2026-03-12 | CBRE | $131.84 | +1.0 % | +2.3 % | +7.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | CG | $45.31 | +5.3 % | +3.2 % | +4.4 % |
| 2026-03-12 | CWK | $11.89 | +2.0 % | +1.5 % | +11.2 % |
| 2026-03-12 | DUOL | $94.92 | +4.9 % | +3.4 % | -5.2 % |
| 2026-03-12 | EVR | $267.19 | +2.9 % | +6.6 % | +26.5 % |
| 2026-03-12 | HLNE | $94.23 | +7.2 % | +3.5 % | -2.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | LYFT | $12.95 | +3.3 % | +0.3 % | +2.2 % |
| 2026-03-12 | MC | $51.38 | +5.0 % | +7.9 % | +22.7 % |
| 2026-03-12 | MS | $154.37 | +2.7 % | +5.7 % | +15.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | NAVI | $8.06 | +0.6 % | +2.1 % | -1.5 % |
| 2026-03-12 | PEN | $334.99 | +0.7 % | +0.4 % | -1.6 % |
| 2026-03-12 | PJT | $129.05 | +1.2 % | +7.9 % | +17.0 % |
| 2026-03-12 | POOL | $204.12 | +0.1 % | -1.5 % | +5.3 % |
| 2026-03-12 | RGEN | $113.76 | +3.4 % | +0.6 % | +5.6 % |
Scanner refreshed 2026-08-12. 4 matches.