Short-term play
Gap-down capitulation
Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.
A heavy down-gap on a stock that's been chronically weak. Counter-intuitive but consistent: these gaps tend to mark the bottom, not the start of further downside.
Recommended position
- Structure
- Short 95 % strike put · long 80 % strike put · 30 days to expiry
- Take profit
- Close at +50 % of credit received (or +100 % of capital at risk)
- Stop loss
- Close at −50 % of capital at risk
- Expected per trade
- +20 % mean over capital at risk, 72 % hit rate, Sharpe 0.43.
- Thesis
- The gap-down spikes implied volatility; long calls get vol-crushed and lose despite the modest directional edge. Credit put spread captures the elevated put premium instead. Same family as bounce, smaller magnitude.
- Important note
- −50 % stop is critical here; the cohort has a fatter left-tail than bullish_div. Avoid naked long calls on this setup — historically they barely break even.
UPWK$8.40Communications+1.00-18.2%-55.5%+3.86+1.008.9%
Credit$31
Max win$31
Stop loss−$47
CELH$27.62Cons. Staples+1.00-5.3%-57.2%+1.63+2.00-6.9%
Credit$104
Max win$104
Stop loss−$155
TTD$13.49Communications+1.00-27.2%-80.3%+7.14+3.00-9.5%
Credit$51
Max win$51
Stop loss−$76
PZZA$24.09Cons. Discr.+3.00-9.0%-46.2%+7.62+4.00-11.5%
Credit$90
Max win$90
Stop loss−$136
APP$303.76Communications+2.00-19.0%-43.0%+2.33+4.00-19.7%
Credit$1,139
Max win$1,139
Stop loss−$1,709
Recent triggers
The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.
| Date | Symbol | Entry | +5 days | +10 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | ADBE | $249.32 | -0.5 % | -5.8 % | -3.7 % |
| 2026-03-12 | HLNE | $94.23 | +7.2 % | +3.5 % | -2.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | MELI | $1,680.00 | -0.8 % | -2.9 % | +5.6 % |
| 2026-03-12 | PATH | $11.37 | +7.7 % | -2.9 % | -17.5 % |
| 2026-03-11 | AVAV | $207.73 | +3.9 % | -4.2 % | -14.5 % |
| 2026-03-11 | CPB | $22.94 | -8.1 % | -9.3 % | -9.4 % |
| 2026-03-09 | ELF | $77.15 | -4.6 % | -6.8 % | -20.8 % |
| 2026-03-09 | JEF | $38.16 | -3.6 % | +3.6 % | +10.2 % |
| 2026-03-06 | GEO | $14.35 | +1.4 % | +14.5 % | +23.8 % |
| 2026-03-03 | CRWD | $391.42 | +11.5 % | +10.7 % | -0.3 % |
| 2026-03-03 | FOXF | $18.05 | -9.4 % | -9.3 % | -8.8 % |
| 2026-03-03 | LIF | $43.97 | +5.5 % | -5.4 % | -7.2 % |
| 2026-03-03 | SLM | $19.19 | +4.0 % | +3.4 % | +11.6 % |
| 2026-03-02 | DFH | $17.71 | -11.3 % | -11.0 % | -23.9 % |
| 2026-03-02 | LIF | $53.79 | -11.6 % | -23.7 % | -29.1 % |
| 2026-02-27 | DOCU | $45.07 | +8.0 % | +4.4 % | +1.4 % |
| 2026-02-27 | DT | $35.92 | +9.4 % | +6.9 % | -0.0 % |
| 2026-02-27 | DUOL | $101.00 | +0.9 % | -2.6 % | -5.6 % |
| 2026-02-27 | JEF | $44.40 | -13.8 % | -18.1 % | -10.2 % |
| 2026-02-27 | PSTG | $64.22 | -5.2 % | -4.2 % | -8.2 % |
Scanner refreshed 2026-08-12. 5 matches.