Short-term play
Gap-down capitulation
Names matching setups historically tied to large short-term moves. Not portfolio recommendations — short-term trades are catalyst-driven and only a fraction work out.
A heavy down-gap on a stock that's been chronically weak. Counter-intuitive but consistent: these gaps tend to mark the bottom, not the start of further downside.
Recommended position
- Structure
- Short 95 % strike put · long 80 % strike put · 30 days to expiry
- Take profit
- Close at +50 % of credit received (or +100 % of capital at risk)
- Stop loss
- Close at −50 % of capital at risk
- Expected per trade
- +20 % mean over capital at risk, 72 % hit rate, Sharpe 0.43.
- Thesis
- The gap-down spikes implied volatility; long calls get vol-crushed and lose despite the modest directional edge. Credit put spread captures the elevated put premium instead. Same family as bounce, smaller magnitude.
- Important note
- −50 % stop is critical here; the cohort has a fatter left-tail than bullish_div. Avoid naked long calls on this setup — historically they barely break even.
No names match this setup in the latest scan.
Recent triggers
The last 20 historical fires of this setup on US names with adequate liquidity, sorted newest first. Forward-return columns show how the stock moved in the days after each fire.
| Date | Symbol | Entry | +5 days | +10 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | ADBE | $249.32 | -0.5 % | -5.8 % | -3.7 % |
| 2026-03-12 | HLNE | $94.23 | +7.2 % | +3.5 % | -2.1 % |
| 2026-03-12 | MELI | $1,680.00 | -0.8 % | -2.9 % | +5.6 % |
| 2026-03-12 | PATH | $11.37 | +7.7 % | -2.9 % | -17.5 % |
| 2026-03-11 | AVAV | $207.73 | +3.9 % | -4.2 % | -14.5 % |
| 2026-03-11 | CPB | $22.94 | -8.1 % | -9.3 % | -9.4 % |
| 2026-03-09 | ELF | $77.15 | -4.6 % | -6.8 % | -20.8 % |
| 2026-03-09 | JEF | $38.16 | -3.6 % | +3.6 % | +10.2 % |
| 2026-03-06 | GEO | $14.35 | +1.4 % | +14.5 % | +23.8 % |
| 2026-03-03 | CRWD | $391.42 | +11.5 % | +10.7 % | -0.3 % |
| 2026-03-03 | FOXF | $18.05 | -9.4 % | -9.3 % | -8.8 % |
| 2026-03-03 | LIF | $43.97 | +5.5 % | -5.4 % | -7.2 % |
| 2026-03-03 | SLM | $19.19 | +4.0 % | +3.4 % | +11.6 % |
| 2026-03-02 | DFH | $17.71 | -11.3 % | -11.0 % | -23.9 % |
| 2026-03-02 | LIF | $53.79 | -11.6 % | -23.7 % | -29.1 % |
| 2026-02-27 | DOCU | $45.07 | +8.0 % | +4.4 % | +1.4 % |
| 2026-02-27 | DT | $35.92 | +9.4 % | +6.9 % | -0.0 % |
| 2026-02-27 | DUOL | $101.00 | +0.9 % | -2.6 % | -5.6 % |
| 2026-02-27 | JEF | $44.40 | -13.8 % | -18.1 % | -10.2 % |
| 2026-02-27 | PSTG | $64.22 | -5.2 % | -4.2 % | -8.2 % |
Scanner refreshed 2026-09-27. 0 matches.