Turnarounds
Long-term turnarounds
Names that have lost meaningful value over the last year and where a sustained volume rise suggests accumulation is starting. 60-250 day horizon — not a short-term trade. Validated edge: research/null_results.md.
Scan refreshed 2026-08-12. Held 60-250 days.
Live candidates
Names with trailing-252d return ≤ -30 % AND still ≥ 30 % below their 252d high AND 20-day mean volume ≥ 1.3× the prior 70-day baseline. Gold tier = both axes strict (D ≥ 50 % AND V ≥ 2.0×).
| Tier | Symbol | Sector | Last | Ret 1y | Off high | Vol 20/70 | Stab | Days in DD | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze | ALNY | Health Care | $223.95 | -48.5% | -54.4% | 1.79× | 1.64 | 203d | 0.87 |
| Bronze | PZZA | Cons. Discr. | $24.09 | -45.4% | -56.4% | 1.70× | 1.29 | 199d | 0.77 |
| Bronze | LRN | Cons. Staples | $78.59 | -47.8% | -53.7% | 1.48× | 1.25 | 240d | 0.70 |
| Bronze | CELH | Cons. Staples | $27.62 | -48.9% | -57.4% | 1.39× | 1.41 | 204d | 0.68 |
| Bronze | ROL | Cons. Discr. | $36.52 | -37.5% | -44.3% | 1.72× | 1.19 | 125d | 0.64 |
| Bronze | PEGA | Technology | $31.35 | -37.0% | -53.0% | 1.67× | 1.37 | 198d | 0.62 |
| Bronze | ACI | Cons. Staples | $12.01 | -38.0% | -39.2% | 1.49× | 1.54 | 204d | 0.56 |
| Bronze | APP | Communications | $303.76 | -34.8% | -58.6% | 1.45× | 1.11 | 159d | 0.50 |
Recent fires
Turnaround candidates as they first fired, newest first, with the close on the trigger day and the move since.
| Trigger date | Symbol | Tier | Trigger price | Last | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | AHCO | Silver | $5.77 | $5.70 | -1.2% |
| 2026-08-12 | ALNY | Bronze | $221.20 | $227.12 | +2.7% |
| 2026-08-12 | APP | Bronze | $303.76 | $312.67 | +2.9% |
| 2026-08-12 | CELH | Bronze | $28.09 | $28.78 | +2.5% |
| 2026-08-12 | DOCS | Silver | $24.99 | $26.59 | +6.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | LRN | Bronze | $79.09 | $83.67 | +5.8% |
| 2026-08-12 | PZZA | Bronze | $24.32 | $24.09 | — |
| 2026-08-12 | TTD | Silver | $13.49 | $13.49 | — |
| 2026-08-11 | ACI | Bronze | $11.58 | $12.40 | +7.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | ALNY | Silver | $216.98 | $227.12 | +4.7% |
| 2026-08-11 | ARI | Silver | $6.62 | $6.91 | +4.4% |
| 2026-08-11 | CALX | Bronze | $35.90 | $39.84 | +11.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | ERIE | Bronze | $242.04 | $255.83 | +5.7% |
| 2026-08-11 | FIZZ | Bronze | $31.64 | $31.33 | -1.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | GSHD | Bronze | $62.00 | $67.40 | +8.7% |
| 2026-08-11 | HLI | Bronze | $125.49 | $132.21 | +5.4% |
| 2026-08-11 | OI | Bronze | $7.15 | $6.75 | -5.6% |
| 2026-08-11 | PEGA | Bronze | $30.55 | $31.35 | +2.6% |
| 2026-08-11 | PSN | Bronze | $44.21 | $48.28 | +9.2% |
| 2026-08-11 | ROL | Bronze | $37.97 | $36.52 | -3.8% |
Validation cohort — 2010-01-04 to 2025-05-09
The fixed backtest sample the edge was validated on, not a live feed — these dates do not move, which is why the newest of them is well in the past. Latest 30 of the cohort, with the close on the trigger day and the realised 60d / 250d forward return measured from it. See research/turnaround_volume.py.
| Trigger date | Symbol | Trigger price | Ret 1y | Off high | Vol 20/70 | Fwd 60d | Fwd 250d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-09 | SHOO | $22.98 | -41.1% | -52.0% | 1.40× | +12.5% | +76.7% |
| 2025-05-09 | CYTK | $31.70 | -50.1% | -50.2% | 1.35× | +10.9% | +142.6% |
| 2025-05-09 | NEOG | $5.97 | -50.7% | -66.2% | 1.95× | -20.1% | +51.6% |
| 2025-05-09 | ROG | $65.98 | -45.0% | -51.0% | 1.86× | +6.9% | +113.2% |
| 2025-05-09 | VSTS | $6.29 | -36.7% | -62.3% | 1.32× | -10.3% | +46.9% |
| 2025-05-09 | KW | $6.16 | -32.0% | -47.4% | 1.43× | +17.9% | +78.9% |
| 2025-05-09 | MKSI | $80.05 | -38.1% | -46.5% | 1.41× | +12.0% | +291.3% |
| 2025-05-09 | THRM | $26.71 | -47.9% | -51.8% | 1.89× | +25.4% | +18.2% |
| 2025-05-09 | IART | $12.25 | -44.3% | -59.5% | 1.99× | +1.0% | +13.6% |
| 2025-05-08 | WERN | $26.41 | -30.2% | -39.4% | 1.54× | +4.5% | +37.8% |
| 2025-05-08 | RH | $196.60 | -31.3% | -58.4% | 1.49× | +10.9% | -32.0% |
| 2025-05-08 | BC | $48.08 | -43.6% | -46.6% | 1.42× | +23.4% | +68.0% |
| 2025-05-08 | ARCB | $62.50 | -48.7% | -53.2% | 1.44× | +19.6% | +94.8% |
| 2025-05-07 | BRKR | $40.76 | -43.7% | -49.6% | 1.41× | -14.8% | +3.8% |
| 2025-05-07 | WFRD | $43.03 | -64.2% | -67.4% | 1.45× | +29.8% | +151.8% |
| 2025-05-07 | CERT | $11.46 | -35.4% | -35.6% | 2.11× | -13.3% | -45.4% |
| 2025-05-07 | BDX | $131.40 | -31.3% | -33.7% | 1.65× | +7.0% | +10.2% |
| 2025-05-07 | PRAA | $13.28 | -45.1% | -49.3% | 1.60× | +17.7% | +60.3% |
| 2025-05-07 | FND | $73.40 | -35.1% | -41.1% | 1.43× | +11.0% | -30.5% |
| 2025-05-07 | MTX | $52.34 | -30.3% | -41.0% | 1.56× | +8.0% | +51.5% |
| 2025-05-07 | FIVE | $82.20 | -43.5% | -44.8% | 1.35× | +66.1% | +184.9% |
| 2025-05-07 | MATW | $19.10 | -30.7% | -40.4% | 1.30× | +21.3% | +47.0% |
| 2025-05-06 | HAL | $19.44 | -45.3% | -47.7% | 1.36× | +11.1% | +114.6% |
| 2025-05-06 | CABO | $182.98 | -55.8% | -58.9% | 1.39× | -25.3% | -65.4% |
| 2025-05-06 | OGN | $9.13 | -53.7% | -62.1% | 2.13× | +6.8% | +46.2% |
| 2025-05-06 | IART | $12.75 | -54.5% | -58.3% | 1.84× | -3.5% | +3.7% |
| 2025-05-06 | NKE | $57.04 | -36.5% | -41.0% | 1.42× | +30.8% | -24.5% |
| 2025-05-06 | TECH | $47.72 | -32.2% | -40.8% | 1.47× | +15.0% | +18.8% |
| 2025-05-06 | NE | $22.88 | -49.2% | -54.0% | 1.47× | +12.3% | +118.3% |
| 2025-05-06 | WLK | $78.83 | -47.6% | -51.3% | 1.31× | -4.3% | +32.9% |